Difference between revisions of "7.3 Version NERPMAB2"

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(Created page with "'''7.3 VERSION NERPM-AB2''' This section documents the set of improvements that were made to the NERPM model for the release of NERPM-AB2. The improvements focused on: *Bas...")
 
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[[Category:7.0 Version Updates]]
 
'''7.3 VERSION NERPM-AB2'''
 
'''7.3 VERSION NERPM-AB2'''
  
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*Upgraded from the NFTPO specific version of DaySim to the multiple-agency (a.k.a. core) version, which is faster, more stable, and includes new features such as Transportation Network Companies (TNC) mode (i.e. Uber and Lyft)
 
*Upgraded from the NFTPO specific version of DaySim to the multiple-agency (a.k.a. core) version, which is faster, more stable, and includes new features such as Transportation Network Companies (TNC) mode (i.e. Uber and Lyft)
 
*Updated future year scenarios
 
*Updated future year scenarios
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<h2> Parcel to Microzone (MAZ) </h2>
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In the previous version of the model, the unit of spatial analysis was parcels. There were approximately 700,000 parcels in the region, which made it difficult to maintain, edit and attribute, both the existing and alternative scenarios. This led to the creation and use of microzones as an alternative, which is halfway between parcels and TAZs and are easier to maintain. As you can see in the table, there are around 55 thousand microzones against 700 thousand parcels. This makes it much easier for the user to update land use information such as employment, enrollment etc. The total number of TAZs in this version is 1862. The plot shows the TAZ and the MAZ layer around downtown Jacksonville. This shows how TAZs and MAZs are related. You can see in the plot that MAZs in downtown tend to be smaller than the ones in the periphery. If you have any questions about the development of MAZs, please refer to the model documentation for more details.
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{| class="wikitable"
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|-
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! <br />County
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! <br />Number  of Parcels
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! <br />%  Freq
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! <br />Number  of MAZ
 +
! <br />%  Freq
 +
! <br />Number  of TAZ
 +
! <br />%  Freq
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|-
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| <br />Baker
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| <br />12,490
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| <br />1.78
 +
| <br />1,735
 +
| <br />3.14
 +
| <br />29
 +
| <br />1.56
 +
|-
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| <br />Clay
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| <br />84,529
 +
| <br />12.02
 +
| <br />7,796
 +
| <br />14.13
 +
| <br />184
 +
| <br />9.88
 +
|-
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| <br />Duval
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| <br />355,805
 +
| <br />50.59
 +
| <br />28,263
 +
| <br />51.22
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| <br />1,281
 +
| <br />68.80
 +
|-
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| <br />Nassau
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| <br />47,443
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| <br />6.75
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| <br />4,455
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| <br />8.07
 +
| <br />108
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| <br />5.80
 +
|-
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| <br />Putnam
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| <br />102,053
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| <br />14.51
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| <br />6,652
 +
| <br />12.05
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| <br />44
 +
| <br />2.36
 +
|-
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| <br />St.  Johns
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| <br />100,950
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| <br />14.35
 +
| <br />6,283
 +
| <br />11.39
 +
| <br />216
 +
| <br />11.60
 +
|-
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| <br />Total
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| <br />703,270
 +
| <br />100.00
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| <br />55,184
 +
| <br />100.00
 +
| <br />1,862
 +
| <br />100.00
 +
|}
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<h4> Figure: MAZ and TAZ layer in Downtown Jacksonville </h4>
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[[File:Maztaz.jpg]]
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<h2> PopulationSim </h2>
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*PopulationSim is an open platform for population synthesis
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 +
*Replaced PopGen in this version of NERPM-AB
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 +
*Has better demographic and geographic methods compared to PopGen
 +
 +
*Actively maintained by the travel modeling community
 +
 +
*Run only when there are major changes in the landuse data
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 +
[http://https://activitysim.github.io/populationsim/# PopulationSim Wiki]
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 +
In this figure, we see the performance of PopulationSim as it tries to match the controls. In this version of the model, controls such as household size, householder age, household income etc. were used at different levels of geography. The standard deviation (STDEV) of the percentage difference informs us of how much dispersion from the average exists. As you can see, the total number of households at the MAZ level matches perfectly with the controls. PopulationSim does that by design. And we see a very close match on all the other controls as well.
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[[File:Sdev.jpg]][[File:Prmse.jpg]]
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<h2> Model Calibration and Validation </h2>
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 +
The 2017 north florida travel survey and the 2016 onboard rider demographic survey were used to calibrate the model. Traffic counts and transit boarding counts were used to validate the model outputs.
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<h4> Table: Population and Employment </h4>
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{| class="wikitable"
 +
|-
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! County
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! 2015 Population
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! 2015 Employment
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! BEA 2015
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! 2030 Population
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! 2030 Employment
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! 2045 Population
 +
! 2045 Employment
 +
|-
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| Baker
 +
| 23,138
 +
| 9,649
 +
| 9,695
 +
| 32,340
 +
| 15,876
 +
| 37,723
 +
| 20,123
 +
|-
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| Clay
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| 189,600
 +
| 68,871
 +
| 69,317
 +
| 263,882
 +
| 120,166
 +
| 321,984
 +
| 156,073
 +
|-
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| Duval
 +
| 854,757
 +
| 624,952
 +
| 623,596
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| 1,078,136
 +
| 786,052
 +
| 1,231,564
 +
| 888,333
 +
|-
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| Nassau
 +
| 76,672
 +
| 30,948
 +
| 31,086
 +
| 97,500
 +
| 49,367
 +
| 116,024
 +
| 60,801
 +
|-
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| Putnam
 +
| 71,687
 +
| 22,605
 +
| 22,780
 +
| 78,328
 +
| 34,695
 +
| 84,790
 +
| 38,102
 +
|-
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| St Johns
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| 202,375
 +
| 105,077
 +
| 104,983
 +
| 318,041
 +
| 197,421
 +
| 412,811
 +
| 287,415
 +
|-
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| Grand Total
 +
| 1,418,229
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| 862,102
 +
| 861,457
 +
| 1,868,227
 +
| 1,203,577
 +
| 2,204,896
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| 1,450,847
 +
|}
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<h4>Trip Length Frequency Distribution </h4>
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[[File:Wsloc.JPG]]
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<h4>Tour Mode Choice </h4>
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[[File:Tourmode.JPG]]
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<h4>Trip Mode Choice </h4>
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[[File:Tripmode.JPG]]
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<h4>Highway Validation </h4>
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[[File:Hwyvalidation.JPG]]
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<h4>Transit Validation </h4>
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[[File:Trnvalidation.JPG]]

Revision as of 21:53, 27 August 2020

7.3 VERSION NERPM-AB2

This section documents the set of improvements that were made to the NERPM model for the release of NERPM-AB2. The improvements focused on:

  • Base year updated from 2010 to 2015
  • Re-built all land use inputs for 2015 and future
  • Switched from parcels to microzones to ease data preparation
  • Switched from PopGen to PopulationSim
  • Updated the highway network to 2015 (NFTPO)
  • Updated the transit network to 2016 (JTA)
  • Updated external traffic volumes and distributions based on Bluetooth OD data (FDOT)
  • Upgraded from the NFTPO specific version of DaySim to the multiple-agency (a.k.a. core) version, which is faster, more stable, and includes new features such as Transportation Network Companies (TNC) mode (i.e. Uber and Lyft)
  • Updated future year scenarios

Parcel to Microzone (MAZ)

In the previous version of the model, the unit of spatial analysis was parcels. There were approximately 700,000 parcels in the region, which made it difficult to maintain, edit and attribute, both the existing and alternative scenarios. This led to the creation and use of microzones as an alternative, which is halfway between parcels and TAZs and are easier to maintain. As you can see in the table, there are around 55 thousand microzones against 700 thousand parcels. This makes it much easier for the user to update land use information such as employment, enrollment etc. The total number of TAZs in this version is 1862. The plot shows the TAZ and the MAZ layer around downtown Jacksonville. This shows how TAZs and MAZs are related. You can see in the plot that MAZs in downtown tend to be smaller than the ones in the periphery. If you have any questions about the development of MAZs, please refer to the model documentation for more details.


County
Number of Parcels
% Freq
Number of MAZ
% Freq
Number of TAZ
% Freq

Baker
12,490
1.78
1,735
3.14
29
1.56

Clay
84,529
12.02
7,796
14.13
184
9.88

Duval
355,805
50.59
28,263
51.22
1,281
68.80

Nassau
47,443
6.75
4,455
8.07
108
5.80

Putnam
102,053
14.51
6,652
12.05
44
2.36

St. Johns
100,950
14.35
6,283
11.39
216
11.60

Total
703,270
100.00
55,184
100.00
1,862
100.00

Figure: MAZ and TAZ layer in Downtown Jacksonville

Maztaz.jpg

PopulationSim

  • PopulationSim is an open platform for population synthesis
  • Replaced PopGen in this version of NERPM-AB
  • Has better demographic and geographic methods compared to PopGen
  • Actively maintained by the travel modeling community
  • Run only when there are major changes in the landuse data

PopulationSim Wiki

In this figure, we see the performance of PopulationSim as it tries to match the controls. In this version of the model, controls such as household size, householder age, household income etc. were used at different levels of geography. The standard deviation (STDEV) of the percentage difference informs us of how much dispersion from the average exists. As you can see, the total number of households at the MAZ level matches perfectly with the controls. PopulationSim does that by design. And we see a very close match on all the other controls as well.

Sdev.jpgPrmse.jpg

Model Calibration and Validation

The 2017 north florida travel survey and the 2016 onboard rider demographic survey were used to calibrate the model. Traffic counts and transit boarding counts were used to validate the model outputs.

Table: Population and Employment

County 2015 Population 2015 Employment BEA 2015 2030 Population 2030 Employment 2045 Population 2045 Employment
Baker 23,138 9,649 9,695 32,340 15,876 37,723 20,123
Clay 189,600 68,871 69,317 263,882 120,166 321,984 156,073
Duval 854,757 624,952 623,596 1,078,136 786,052 1,231,564 888,333
Nassau 76,672 30,948 31,086 97,500 49,367 116,024 60,801
Putnam 71,687 22,605 22,780 78,328 34,695 84,790 38,102
St Johns 202,375 105,077 104,983 318,041 197,421 412,811 287,415
Grand Total 1,418,229 862,102 861,457 1,868,227 1,203,577 2,204,896 1,450,847

Trip Length Frequency Distribution

Wsloc.JPG

Tour Mode Choice

Tourmode.JPG

Trip Mode Choice

Tripmode.JPG

Highway Validation

Hwyvalidation.JPG

Transit Validation

Trnvalidation.JPG

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